Should I book a holiday now? What the Iran War means for travel

The Iran crisis has perhaps been one of the hardest to follow and keep on top of because of the way the protagonists’ positions can seemingly shift 180° in such short order, sometimes even reversing again the same day! It’s a confusing one, and it makes us reluctant to plan. I wanted to offer some more reassurance about travel now and to try to make sense of some of those issues currently impacting travel.Perhaps the story having the greatest impact on people’s desire to travel is the idea that we are going to run out of jet fuel: it’s certainly something coming up with some regularity in our conversations with clients. The truth is, the world is most definitely not going to run out of jet fuel. About 25% of the world’s jet fuel is exported through the Straits of Hormuz, meaning that out there in the world is 75% of the usual supply. Granted, it may not all be where it’s most needed, and losing 25% of the supply will definitely impact prices, but we are not going to see mass-groundings of aircraft fleets across the globe.Two things will happen: airlines will run fewer flights on routes with multiple flights a day (usually shorter routes) because it will mean they can move passengers on to other flights the same day (even if that is with another carrier); and they will do this to protect flights on longer routes with fewer flights. This allows them to still fly as many passengers as possible. They will also, I think, make these changes some way in advance, so the chances of being stranded overseas are slim.

The other thing that will happen is prices will continue to rise (for long-haul flights at least; apparently on some European routes, prices are currently falling as airlines try to convince people to still travel).Fortunately, these scenarios are exactly why booking with us is the most sensible option. If you have booked a holiday with us and a flight you’re due to take is cancelled, we’re legally obliged to find a suitable alternative for you (something we’ve already done for clients due to travel via the Gulf since the crisis began). That’s whether the flight is cancelled months before you depart, or whilst you’re actually away. And once you’ve booked your trip with us and we’ve issued your flights, those prices are locked in. In theory, if there is a fuel surcharge on the flights, we can pass on any increase of 2-8% of the holiday cost (above which you have the right to cancel). In reality, we have never imposed a surcharge like this in 15 years of operation, so once you’ve booked and paid for those flights, you can be really confident you’re not going to be landed with a fuel surcharge. So from that point of view, given that fuel prices are likely to rise for at least the immediate future, your best bet is to book now and lock in a price.

The Iran crisis is undoubtedly significant, but I think there are real benefits to assessing it as logically as possible, and splitting the impact on your holidays into three sections:
1) the actual physical risk to you personally; 2) the impact of financial and fuel issues on the ground in our host destinations; 3) and the financial impact of the crisis, and how this impacts your holidays.

The physical risk is quite easy to deal with: unless you are travelling to the impacted Gulf region itself (which we’re not offering, because it would be contrary to FCDO Advice!) I think the risk is very low. At this stage, beyond the main protagonists, there’s seemingly no desire from other countries to be drawn into the conflict: even the Gulf states themselves are limiting their involvement to defensive measures, not attacking Iran in retaliation.So, as horrendous as the crisis is, it is geographically contained, and the destinations we serve outside of the Gulf remain welcoming and safe to visit.

The impact on the ground in the destinations we sell is mixed but limited.There are a small number of places experiencing limited fuel shortages, so there are a handful of excursions across the portfolio we can't currently offer, but we can talk you through those specifics: at this stage none of them are so significant they would ruin a holiday.There have been some reports of flight cancellations due to a lack of aviation fuel, but these are fairly overblown at the moment. Some airlines are cancelling some of their shorter flights on routes that see multiple flights a day, or flights on less-popular routes, but we’ve not seen any significant problems as a result.I think the idea of the major airlines we use getting caught unawares and cancelling flights with minimal notice (leaving passengers “stranded” overseas) is very unlikely - but should it happen, then as your tour operator it is our legal responsibility to get you home: we’ve had some glowing reviews from clients who were due to fly home from holidays via the Gulf when the crisis began and airspace was closed because we took really good care of them and made sure they got home safe and sound.So, I think the impact of the crisis on your flights and experience on the ground is limited.

The financial impact of the crisis is an interesting one. Looking at the headlines, you’d think we’re all going to be destitute by the end of the year, and whilst I’m not denying that there is some financial pain out there, it’s important to keep a sense of perspective. The Resolution Foundation have just calculated that the average British household will be £480 worse off this year as a result of the crisis; and at the time of writing the S&P and FTSE are still 5-8% ahead of where they were in the summer of last year, despite recent volatility and losses. Set against that is the fact that holiday prices are only going to go up. Get your holiday booked now, and you can lock in the current prices: wait for six months and you’ll be faced with those increased costs. You might be thinking “yeah, but you can still pass surcharges on to us after we’ve booked”, and, to a certain extent, that’s true. If our supplier costs increase by more than 2%, our terms & conditions allow us to pass this on to you. However, in the 15 years of HA’s existence, we have never once enforced this clause - not because of Covid, not when we’ve had major currency fluctuations go against us, not when taxes have suddenly been increased by our host governments. Never say never, and that clause is in there to protect HA against truly massive losses, but the same section of our terms & conditions also says that if the surcharge comes to more than 8% of your holiday cost, you can cancel and have a full refund. So, you’re protected as well. You’re also protected if the conflict widens: should the country you’re planning to travel to somehow get drawn into the crisis and the UK government consequently advises against travel there, you’re entitled to postpone your trip, transfer the money to an alternative holiday with us, or get a full refund.

My personal feeling is that if you are planning to take a holiday to one of our destinations at any point in the next year or so, the savvy move is to book it now. You’re going to be as safe as ever on your trip, you’re fully protected if anything goes wrong (by law, but more importantly by the amazing team here at HA – and we’re always at the end of the phone, ready to step in and handle anything unexpected), and you’ll lock in prices as insurance against any price increases that may come further down the line as a result of the conflict. I appreciate that events are fast-moving, and circumstances may change. It’s our job to stay on top of those, and we keep ourselves very well informed through UK government sources, our agents on the ground, and, of course, through you, our lovely clients, as you travel around these countries with us. I also appreciate that crises like these make us feel uncertain about the future, and I’m never going to try and hector or persuade someone to book a holiday if they’re not comfortable and confident in doing so: I just hope that this helps give you some of that comfort and confidence because I know when you do get away on that holiday with us, you’ll be so glad you made that decision!

There are destinations across our portfolio that remain every bit as welcoming, safe and rewarding as ever. Wildlife-rich safaris, laid-back coastal journeys and immersive cultural trips. These are some of our favourites right now – places we know inside out, and would happily send our own friends and family to.

It’s completely normal to feel a bit hesitant right now. Travel decisions aren’t small ones, and it’s important you feel comfortable and confident before making them.Reassurance is really what we do best. Yes, we’re legally obliged to sort you out when things like cancelled flights happen, but it’s more than that. We’re here to let you know how to still have the most amazing holiday at a time like this, to work with you on planning that perfect trip, and to look after you from our first conversation through to your return. Have a look at our reviews on Trustpilot, and you’ll see how this plays out, and not just on the trips where everything runs smoothly. The most valuable comments I sometimes think are those from people grateful for how well we handled things when life threw a curveball at the holiday!If you’d like a fuller explanation on the current situation, how travelling with us works, or where we’d confidently recommend travelling right now, these recent blogs are a good place to start:· Why book through a tour operator?· Where can you travel right now?If it would help to chat things through, we’re always here at the end of the phone. Whether you’re ready to plan, or just want a bit of guidance, we’ll give you a clear, honest view of what’s right for you.Andy HuntHA Founder