Should I book a holiday now? What the Iran War means for travel

The Iran crisis is undoubtedly significant, but I think there are real benefits to assessing it as logically as possible, and splitting the impact on your holidays into three sections:
1) the actual physical risk to you personally; 2) the impact of financial and fuel issues on the ground in our host destinations; 3) and the financial impact of the crisis, and how this impacts your holidays.

The physical risk is quite easy to deal with: unless you are travelling to the impacted Gulf region itself (which we’re not offering, because it would be contrary to FCDO Advice!) I think the risk is very low. At this stage, beyond the main protagonists, there’s seemingly no desire from other countries to be drawn into the conflict: even the Gulf states themselves are limiting their involvement to defensive measures, not attacking Iran in retaliation.So, as horrendous as the crisis is, it is geographically contained, and the destinations we serve outside of the Gulf remain welcoming and safe to visit.

The impact on the ground in the destinations we sell is mixed but limited.There are a small number of places experiencing limited fuel shortages, so there are a handful of excursions across the portfolio we can't currently offer, but we can talk you through those specifics: at this stage none of them are so significant they would ruin a holiday.There have been some reports of flight cancellations due to a lack of aviation fuel, but these are fairly overblown at the moment. Some airlines are cancelling some of their shorter flights on routes that see multiple flights a day, or flights on less-popular routes, but we’ve not seen any significant problems as a result.I think the idea of the major airlines we use getting caught unawares and cancelling flights with minimal notice (leaving passengers “stranded” overseas) is very unlikely - but should it happen, then as your tour operator it is our legal responsibility to get you home: we’ve had some glowing reviews from clients who were due to fly home from holidays via the Gulf when the crisis began and airspace was closed because we took really good care of them and made sure they got home safe and sound.So, I think the impact of the crisis on your flights and experience on the ground is limited.

The financial impact of the crisis is an interesting one. Looking at the headlines, you’d think we’re all going to be destitute by the end of the year, and whilst I’m not denying that there is some financial pain out there, it’s important to keep a sense of perspective. The Resolution Foundation have just calculated that the average British household will be £480 worse off this year as a result of the crisis; and at the time of writing the S&P and FTSE are still 5-8% ahead of where they were in the summer of last year, despite recent volatility and losses. Set against that is the fact that holiday prices are only going to go up. Get your holiday booked now, and you can lock in the current prices: wait for six months and you’ll be faced with those increased costs. You might be thinking “yeah, but you can still pass surcharges on to us after we’ve booked”, and, to a certain extent, that’s true. If our supplier costs increase by more than 2%, our terms & conditions allow us to pass this on to you. However, in the 15 years of HA’s existence, we have never once enforced this clause - not because of Covid, not when we’ve had major currency fluctuations go against us, not when taxes have suddenly been increased by our host governments. Never say never, and that clause is in there to protect HA against truly massive losses, but the same section of our terms & conditions also says that if the surcharge comes to more than 8% of your holiday cost, you can cancel and have a full refund. So, you’re protected as well. You’re also protected if the conflict widens: should the country you’re planning to travel to somehow get drawn into the crisis and the UK government consequently advises against travel there, you’re entitled to postpone your trip, transfer the money to an alternative holiday with us, or get a full refund.

My personal feeling is that if you are planning to take a holiday to one of our destinations at any point in the next year or so, the savvy move is to book it now. You’re going to be as safe as ever on your trip, you’re fully protected if anything goes wrong (by law, but more importantly by the amazing team here at HA – and we’re always at the end of the phone, ready to step in and handle anything unexpected), and you’ll lock in prices as insurance against any price increases that may come further down the line as a result of the conflict. I appreciate that events are fast-moving, and circumstances may change. It’s our job to stay on top of those, and we keep ourselves very well informed through UK government sources, our agents on the ground, and, of course, through you, our lovely clients, as you travel around these countries with us. I also appreciate that crises like these make us feel uncertain about the future, and I’m never going to try and hector or persuade someone to book a holiday if they’re not comfortable and confident in doing so: I just hope that this helps give you some of that comfort and confidence because I know when you do get away on that holiday with us, you’ll be so glad you made that decision!

There are destinations across our portfolio that remain every bit as welcoming, safe and rewarding as ever. Wildlife-rich safaris, laid-back coastal journeys and immersive cultural trips. These are some of our favourites right now – places we know inside out, and would happily send our own friends and family to.

It’s completely normal to feel a bit hesitant right now. Travel decisions aren’t small ones, and it’s important you feel comfortable and confident before making them.If it would help to chat things through, we’re always here at the end of the phone. Whether you’re ready to plan, or just want a bit of guidance, we’ll give you a clear, honest view of what’s right for you.Andy HuntHA Founder